PhotoMarc Andreessen, a venture capitalist.Credit Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Fretting over a possible downturn in Silicon Valley is now a mainstream pursuit.
Marc Andreessen, the prominent venture capitalist, took to Twitter on Thursday to warn against excessive spending by start-ups that have attracted capital from investors. Companies that spend money on fancy offices or too many employees, he said, could be in trouble when the market turns.
Mr. Andreessen is one of several technology insiders to recently raise such concerns. DealBook reported in August that, with capital flowing freely and start-up valuations soaring, some start-ups were raising cash as an insurance policy against leaner times. Bill Gurley, a partner at the venture capital firm Benchmark, warned in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that “no one’s fearful, everyone’s greedy, and it will eventually end.” Fred Wilson, a partner at Union Square Ventures, later wrote a blog post about excessive “burn rates.”
But Mr. Andreessen’s Twitter lecture was notable because he has been one of the most vocal opponents of the idea that Silicon Valley is currently in a bubblelike environment.
Here are his tweets.
1/Cash burn rates at startups: Recently @bgurley and @fredwilson have sounded a vivid alarm — http://t.co/xT4cr4mk5G http://t.co/2BfoS9t3AW
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
2/I said at the time that I agree with much of what Bill says (https://t.co/Yizp0Zr64F), and I want to expand on the topic further:
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
3/New founders in last 10 years have ONLY been in environment where money is always easy to raise at higher valuations. THAT WILL NOT LAST.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
4/When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co’s will VAPORIZE.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
5/High cash burn rates are dangerous in several ways beyond the obvious increased risk of running out of cash. Important to understand why:
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
6/First: High burn rate kills your ability to adapt as you learn & as market changes. Co becomes unwieldy, too big to easily change course.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
7/Second: Hiring people is easy; layoffs are devastating. Hiring for startups is effectively one way street. Again, can’t change once stuck.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
8/Third: Your managers get trained and incented ONLY to hire, as answer to every question. Company bloats & becomes badly run at same time.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
9/Fourth: Lots of people, big shiny office, high expense base = Fake “we’ve made it!” feeling. Removes pressure to deliver real results.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
10/Fifth: More people multiplies communication overhead exponentially, slows everything down. Company bogs down, becomes bad place to work.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
11/Sixth: Raising new money becomes harder & harder. You have bigger bulldog to feed, need more and more $ at higher and higher valuations.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
12/Therefore you take on escalating risk of a catastrophic down round. High-cash-burn startups almost never survive down rounds. VAPORIZE.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
13/Further, to get into this position, you probably had to raise too much $ at too high valuation before; escalates down round risk further.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
14/Seventh: Even if you CAN raise an up round, you are increasingly likely to incur terrible structural terms like ratchets to chin the bar.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
15/That nice hedge fund investor willing to hit your valuation bar? Imagine him owning 80% of co after down round. How nice will he be then?
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
16/Eighth: When market turns, M&A mostly stops. Nobody will want to buy your cash-incinerating startup. There will be no Plan B. VAPORIZE.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
17/Finally, there are exceptions to all this. But if you’re reading this, you’re almost certainly not one. They are few and far between.
— Marc Andreessen (@pmarca) 25 Sep 14
18/Worry.
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